![]() It’s a dangerous delusion to think that space offers an escape from Earth’s problems. Because of this safety culture, Nasa will confront political obstacles in achieving any grand goal within a feasible budget. So each failure caused a national trauma and was followed by a hiatus while costly efforts were made (with very limited effect) to reduce the risk. But the shuttle had, unwisely, been promoted as “safe”. Thrill-seekers would willingly accept this 2% level of risk. ![]() The space shuttle failed twice in 135 launches. Nasa’s programme for human spaceflight, ever since Apollo, has been impeded by public and political pressure into being exceedingly risk-averse. In another decade, such a probe will have AI sufficient to identify and explore interesting sites and geological formations. In contrast, Perseverance, which landed on Mars last February, has sufficient intelligence to find its way around obstacles. For instance, the Curiosity vehicle sent to Mars a decade ago trundled slowly across a Martian crater if it encountered a rock, it needed instructions from Earth about how to divert its path. Robotic and AI techniques are evolving fast. And they could repair spacecraft in orbit far beyond the moon. Robotic fabricators will assemble vast lightweight structures in space (huge, gossamer-thin mirrors or solar energy collectors, for instance), maybe using raw materials mined from the moon or asteroids. This was launched 20 years ago and based on 1990s technology. And telescopes in space have revolutionised our knowledge of the cosmos.ĭuring this century, the whole solar system will be explored by flotillas of miniaturised probes, far more advanced than, for instance, Nasa’s wonderful Cassini probe, which spent 13 years exploring Saturn and its moons. Unmanned probes to other planets have beamed back pictures of varied and distinctive worlds. Space technology has burgeoned – for communication, environmental monitoring, satnav and so forth. Its prime motive now is simply as an adventure – an ultra-expensive sport that should be left to billionaires and private sponsorship. ![]() Indeed as robotics and miniaturisation improve, the practical and scientific case for human spaceflight weakens. Some might argue that we therefore need to instigate more ambitious plans for human spaceflight: to enable human assembly of large structures in deep space, to return to the moon, and eventually to reach Mars. The Hubble telescope was in a low (and accessible) orbit: in contrast, the JWST’s orbit will be several times further away than the moon – far beyond the reach of astronauts. The stakes are higher for the JWST: it’s vastly more elaborate, but there is no prospect of a repair mission. But astronauts undertook a “rescue” mission to make adjustments and later made further visits to upgrade the instruments. After the Hubble Space Telescope was launched more than 30 years ago, its mirror turned out to be poorly aligned. ![]()
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